If your capture strategy starts when an RFP hits SAM.gov, you are already behind.

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That was the core message from Derek Hoyt, co-founder of GovSignals and former U.S. intelligence officer and program manager at Palantir and Amazon, in his recent appearance on The Stargazy Brief with host Chris Carter of stargazy.io.

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In a market where the federal government commits roughly $755 billion a year to contracts, and hundreds of thousands of entities are registered on SAM.gov to compete for that work, doing “more of the same” is not a strategy.

This episode breaks down what a modern, intent-driven capture playbook looks like, and how AI (used correctly and compliantly) changes the game for small and mid-size contractors.

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1. Why waiting on SAM.gov is a losing strategy

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Derek and Chris start with a hard truth: by the time many opportunities hit SAM.gov, a large portion of them are already pre-shaped.

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Agencies, primes, and incumbents have often spent months refining requirements, socializing concepts, and running market research long before a public posting. The result: a lot of what shows up on SAM is technically open, but practically tilted toward a specific vendor or solution.

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The challenge for modern capture teams is to:

  • Recognize which 70% of opportunities are effectively spoken for, and
  • Focus aggressively on the 30% that are genuinely open to new competitors.

That means looking beyond keyword alerts and static forecasts, and paying attention to signals: budget shifts, teaming patterns, past award behavior, and early program language that hints at real intent.

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2. From “more data” to “better insight”

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The government is not short on data. Between SAM.gov, FPDS/contract data, agency forecasts, and public budget material, capture teams are drowning in information.

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What Derek emphasizes is that the winning teams are not the ones who scrape more PDFs. They are the ones who can turn that noise into prioritized, actionable insight:

  • Which programs fit your actual capabilities and past performance
  • Which agencies are signaling a shift in priorities or tech stack
  • Which competitors are entrenched, and where new players have a real shot

That is where agentic AI comes in: not just summarizing documents, but actually reading requirements, mapping them to your strengths, qualifying opportunities, and proposing next actions.

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3. Partner early, not late

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One of the biggest recurring themes in the episode is teaming.

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Traditional GovCon behavior is to chase RFPs solo until the last minute, then scramble to add subs or primes as boxes to check. Derek argues that the small and mid-size contractors who win out are the ones who partner early, not late:

  • They use signals to see where primes are investing and who they like to team with.
  • They approach potential partners long before the RFP drops, offering clear niche value.
  • They treat teaming as a strategy, not a fire drill.

AI helps here by revealing who wins together, what roles they typically play, and where there are gaps a smaller firm can credibly fill.

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4. CMMC is not enough: the FedRAMP High reality check

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A big portion of the conversation covers compliance — particularly the difference between CMMC Level 2 and FedRAMP.

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Derek and Chris call out a common misunderstanding: many contractors assume that if they are marching toward CMMC or aligned to NIST SP 800-171, they can safely use any cloud or AI tool for CUI. That is not true.

DoD has made it clear that when CUI is stored or processed in the cloud, the underlying service must be FedRAMP authorized or FedRAMP-equivalent.

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  • CMMC and NIST 800-171 govern how contractors protect CUI in their environment.
  • FedRAMP governs the cloud services themselves.

If you upload CUI into a non-FedRAMP cloud, you may be out of alignment with DFARS 252.204-7012, CMMC expectations, and DoD’s FedRAMP guidance — even if your internal controls are strong.

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That is what makes GovSignals operating in a FedRAMP High authorized environment so important: defense contractors can finally use AI on real proposal content, including CUI, without stepping outside the rules.

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5. Intent-driven capture (and why win rate is overrated)

The episode also dives into intent-driven capture — the idea that capture teams should organize around signals of buying intent, not just lists of open opportunities.

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Examples Derek points to include:

  • Shifts in agency budgets and mission priorities
  • Patterns in recompetes and on-ramps
  • The emergence of new tech areas (like the surge in DoD space programs)
  • Who agencies are already talking to at industry days and on existing vehicles

Instead of chasing every RFP to keep “win rate” optics up, Derek argues teams should optimize for efficiency and effectiveness:

  • Fewer, better-qualified pursuits
  • Deeper shaping on opportunities that match your strengths
  • A pipeline that reflects realistic intent, not wishful thinking

6. How GovSignals fits into the new playbook

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Throughout the conversation, Chris and Derek tie these ideas back to how GovSignals is designed:

  • Agentic AI that reads solicitations, builds compliance matrices, and drafts proposal content based on your own secure documents and past performance.
  • Intent data that surfaces opportunities earlier and helps you qualify faster.
  • A FedRAMP High authorized environment so defense and national security contractors can finally use AI on their most sensitive proposal work without creating compliance risk.

The result is a capture and proposal workflow that matches the way government actually buys in 2025 — shaped early, partner-heavy, and increasingly constrained by cybersecurity expectations.

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Who should watch this episode

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This Stargazy Brief episode is especially relevant for:

  • Proposal managers tired of manual shredding and version chaos
  • BD and capture leaders looking to modernize their pipeline strategy
  • Defense and intel contractors who want to leverage AI but cannot risk non-compliant tools

👉 Watch the episode and explore the Stargazy x GovSignals hub:

If you are still treating SAM.gov as the starting line, this conversation will make you rethink the entire race.